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Homicide rate predictions for 2009-10 - not looking good.
Freedom Chambers has take the bold step of projecting for homicide rates in 2009 and 2010.
Our conservative estimate of 527 homicides for 2008 is likely to be exceeded - and reach 546.
We believe that our mathematical model is now so accurate that we can reasonably predict that in 2009 there will be about 580 homicides in Trinidad & Tobago. 2010 will be followed by 650 homicides.
We believe that there is a run-away dysfunctional process leading to the escalating homicide rate. The effectiveness of crime control measures would have to be referenced against our predictions. Only significant declines in homicides over two years will indicate some departure from the expected trend.
Our graph below can be quoted and distributed in its unaltered form any where by lawful means (see attached).
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...WE REACH YES...!...WE REACH...!
...in trying to keep track of all these killings and murders, today Tuesday December 30,2008 one news source reported the murder rate for 2008 now stands at 546...thats five hundred and forty six people dead by guns and bullets and cutlasses...right on cue...!
...and this does not include another 237 or so dead in vehicle and car accidents...for 2008...!
...and then there are the other 503 plus missing persons who cannot be found or located...on our small island...???!
...what a bumper year for Trinis...people dropping down dead like flies all about, while the Prime Minister, the Minister of Security and the Commissioner of Police et al all have a plan..."in their back pocket"..?...all keep on saying "crime will go down..."..including today..the the Army Chief Dillon who now joined the chorus... (or was that the circus...?)...and vow to "make war against criminals and make T&T safe"...just like all the rest of the PNM regime have been preaching and singing for the past many generations, all of which failed miserably...!
...but then none of them have a plan anyway..."not even in their back pocket"...or the "A to Z" ole talk they gave the people to swallow last time...or anything that works anyway...totally bankrupt of fresh ideas from top to bottom...in fact all their plans have failed to date, and the only success was in "improving on the crime statistics upwards from year to year"...including the "blind and sightless eye in the sky blimp"...!..All a lot of "Hot Air" to keep the useless Balloon/Blimp afloat...and really expensive "Hot Air" at that too...!
...so, I think your graph and predictions so far has proven to be more accurate and in line with what is really happening in good ole T&T and maybe these blokes would be looking to buy in on the methodology of your predictions to help them get a handle on things for the future...?
...but then, here I go again losing my thoughts on wishful thinking...I plain forgot those folks in charge "don't engage their minds in any type of thinking...its not allowed if even they wanted to...only one man could think there..." !..and to the rest..."well not a damn dog bark..."!!!
...for a change try living in the real world, not the fairy tale "Land of Milk and Honey" that the "spiritual man" keep talking to you all about...thats reserved only for him...and his cronies...???...Si...only in Cuba you say eh...?...yeah, Viva Cuba no...???...and it comes with "free med-care" included...but only for "massa", not for you and me nor the people...or the sick and dying children...begging on their knees (cap in hand) for help to get them better and save them from an ugly death...No, none for you.!.."Only For Massa"...??
...so then ask yourselves the question... "But What About We The People..."???...When was the last time "Massa did something for we the people...when..."???...and where's our Free Multi-Million Dollar Palace and our Free "Top of the line Health Care...Private Doctors and Nurses included..."?... and "where's our Land of Milk and Honey for 2009..."???
...well not in sweet ole Trinidad & Tobago you say...anywhere else but ...!!!
...Happy New year to all...like it or not its coming...its here...!...are you ready for it..?.."because, we reach man...we reach.."!!!
...goodluck...Trini.t.o.o
...
We at The Freedom Chambers (http://www.freedomchambers.com) take no pleasure in our mathematical predictions of the homicide rate (546) in Trindad & Tobago being accurate.
In fact on behalf of all our supporters and the surviving relatives and close friends of homicide victims, we would like to suggest that all who share a common interest in the future of Trinidad & Tobago, observe a minute of silence as the bell tolls towards midnight on 31st December 2008. Now is not a time of celebration.
Spare a single minute in history to contemplate what has happened in 2008 to your Nation, and where you want to take it in 2009.
Declare your independence and determination to change the status quo. A minute of your time - a single free minute - to join in solidarity with a common cause. Do it for your Nation. Your Nation needs you now. Ask not for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for you!
[Copy this message to all your friends and family].
They want justice. I feel for them but my heart is hardened. See Newsday 2009-01-06 - they were planning a sweet sixteen birthday celebration. They were left planning a funeral!! When will enough be enough?
The Freedom Chambers has been tracking something rather new in the last 4 months. There are increasing numbers of hits coming from Google and other search engines, when visitors have searched for words or combinations e.g. "murder, rate, trinidad, 2009, killing, homicide" etc We have not dug deeper to see if these hits are coming from people surfing in T&T, because it is not important at this stage. What is important is that there is increasing interest if not worry about the homicide rate in T&T.
At 21 Feb 2009, 51 days into the year, the murder rate stood at 94. See: Newsday 2009-02-23.
You don't need to be an Einstein to work out that at that rate, by years end T&T will see 672 murders! That is actually exceeding the predictions for 2010 according to the graph above.
Well boy, is carnaval in dee air - so leh we free up and have good times because tomorrow it could be POW! POW! and yuh dead.
Whuh allyuh say dey.
This murder - number 117 in Newsday 2009-03-15 - seems to bring the murder rate back on target with the predictions made by Freedom Chambers. Doing the math seems to suggest it would be 585 by years end. So dis could be good news compared to the 672 estimated a few weeks ago.
The recent homicide of a 39 year old woman by gun toting bandits, rocked Monkey Islanders once more. See: Guardian 2009-06-25 and Newsday 2009-06-25.
Many people on the 'rock' must have thought to themselves, "We thought the murder of Tecia woz bad enough, buh we couldn' imagine it could get worse..." [See: Newsday 2009-06-13].
Well, what is clear is that every time Islanders go "T'ings cyah get worse", it actually gets worse!!
But they believe dat Gord (aka God) will stop the running of his/her universe to help their suffering - a suffering they have brought on themselves as a people.
Whilst I am saddened by the deaths of innocents be it by crime or natural disaster - and God must be saddened as well - I'm sure if God wanted to intervene s/he woulda done so long ago. But if it was me to intervene I wasn't going to do anything.
It is high time that Monkey Islanders start understanding that they live on a small rock and each one of them is responsible for what happens. No I don't mean to say each individual is responsible for another's crime. Instead I mean that each individual carries some responsibility for ensuring that they press those in government to do the job properly. At least on that front it is possible to unite. But will Monkey Islanders actually unite. We'll have to wait and see. I hope they do so quickly and before the country is totally and irreparably wrecked.
The Freedom Chambers predicted that there would be around 580 homicides for 2009. After a short decline in the homicide rate, yesterday's double killing [Guardian 2009-07-08] brought the toll to 278 (in 188 days for the year).
This means that by end of 2009, there should be 540 homicides (at yesterdays rate, averaged).
We expect that as economic hardship and social decay continue, the homicide rate, towards year's end will accelerate. If that is correct we will see the figure nudging closer to 580 as we predicted. This is assuming that the figures aren't massaged down by political influences.
See TT Express 2009-08-25 for the full story.
Notice the media don't say dat he was a gyang leader or was involved wid gyangs.
Jerome's mother consoled herself by saying "He was cool, nothing was too hard for him to do for anybody. He was just in the wrong place at the wrong time"
Dee problem I have is I might be treated like Jerome eef I go dong to spen' time on dee rock. Ah mean po' Jerome couldna work out when was dee right time and where was dee right place.
I cyah say dat me who is removed from Donkey Rock, go be any better dan dee likes of Jerome. So actually I would be at greater risk of getting a hole in dee head eef I go dong dey.
Well yuh see me - I stoppin right here.
2009-08-26 07:20 Site Admin rated: *****Five Star*****
...more recently, Trinis coming up with the most bizarre excuses, lame brained excuses at that, for the wanton killings taking place accross the land, including Tobago...! ...everything from blaming God...to looking for God to get the answers and resolve the problems that's infecting the nation...!
...and now they have hit rock bottom...when they crying out that "you in the worng place at the wrong time..."...so that brings me to the $64 million dollar question..."where is the right place and when is the right time...???"..!
...like the Captain said, this is not "gang related"...and a growing number of the recent killings and murders are also not "gang related"...so whats the excuses now...and more importantly...where is the Prime Minister and his side kick Minister of National Security with all their grandiose "crime fighting plan" from "At o Z"...that they boasted about for more than a year now...where is it and what letter are they down to now...?..must be very close to Plan "Z" also...the very bottom of the barrel and nothing to show for it so far...?
...the "Blimp'...the foreign experts...the radar system that does not work...and all the crime fighting hype they have been telling the people all along...not to mention the millions of taxpayer's dollars wasted...and nothing to show for it...?...but why are they so silent and where are they now hiding out...?
...so back to the right time and de right place...de $64 million dollar question...to find the quick answer...well take a look at the "Trinidad Guardian" dated August 12, 2009..."Ex-Cop killed in bedroom"...and the Express also of August 12, 2009..."Ex-Cop murdered..."...along with the Newsday...also dated August 12, 2009..."Retired cop found murdered at home"...with his mount gagged, tape covering his eyes, and hands tied behind his head, retired police Seargeant Harripersad Ramkissoon, 67, was believed to have been murdered by his assailants at his San Fernando home..."!
...the police believe the motive may have been robbery as they ransacked his home and stole his two vehicles...!...the police have since arrested five men, one of whom lives almost next door to him, and the other four "who all live out of town" but are friends of the next door neighbour...?
...some people believe that his death had to do with the type of work he did for 35 years...and then others feel he was monitored and set up by his next door neighbour to steal his cars...?
...the man was in his own bed in his own home sleeping...so where's the right place and the right time...FOR HIM..?...A decent honest hard working ex-cop who gave the best part of his life to the people of his country...fighting crime...only to become a victime of crime itself...all because a Government, A prime Minister, a Minister of National Security and the cabinet of Ministers who have all failed not only the cop, and the farmer, but the entire nation and its people in protecting them and providing them the security they are entitled to...!
...and now it all boils down to being in the "wrong place in the wrong time"...?... after all the horse manure and promises coming out of the mouths of the Government, the Prime Minister and his Ministers ...as they squander the people's monies and patrimony...and this is now the excuse of the day...???...well where was the rigt place and the right time for Mr. Ramkissoon...?..or Mr. Jerome...??...and the many others who are being killed daily "all while minding their own business"...?
...so we back to the $64 million dollar question...not only where is the right place and the right time..."...but where is Patrick and his Minister of National Security...where are they hiding ..?...maybe with Patrick's 75 personal body guards...???...these people just don't care...???..simple as that...the people will suffer...now they can't even move out of their houses, and if they stay home...well crapaud smoke they pipe...? so where are they going to run now...??
...well they should ask Patrick and his cronies to give them the answer...he have it all in his back pocket...all for himself...and Hazel...and his cronies...ask him if you could find him...???..but he hiding like hell...you just can't find him...???
...so we won't ever know...would we...?... now you have to sleep with one eye open, and the other "one not closed".?...that's where the government brought the people down to doing now...can't even sleep safely in their own homes anymore...but they steppin' up wid Patrick folks..on the way to 2020 vision...!...what a shame...???
...goodluck...Trino.t.o.o
....
...and guess what...? he back in form...he right off the back foot he send one straight to the boundary...with ...?
...to quote the Express: "Manning also said Government was as concerned about crime as the citizens of this country. "If the solutions were easy, we would have solved the problem a long time ago," he said, adding that it was not too late. "What we can commit ourselves to is this: If we try A and A does not work, we will try B. And if B doesn't work, we would try C. We will try, and we will try, and we will try until we solve that (crime) problem in the interest of the people of Trinidad and Tobago".
...and again in his usual true form...all talk but no substance...more hot air than comes out of any active volcano today...he goes right on to add insult to injury by qualifying it with...???
...and again to quote:..".Without elaborating on the proposals, Manning said Government had begun to implement them."...
...in short...in true PNM style al la Manning...he doh know what the heck he doing but he going ahead full speed and doing it anyway...he fool dem once the last time...he fool dem again when dey make noise last year when crime was intolerable and dey look like dey was on dey way to mutiny or rebellion or something...and it worked...and he go fool dem again dis time...de damn fools dey are...dey so easy to fool...ah tell you...ah could fool dem in meh sleep...and off goes Patrick to sleep in his $278 million palace wid his $34,000 bed sheets and his 75 personal bodyguards and yes, "he sleeping like ah king ..".? ...no problem here man...right...?...what crime...where...?...not here...crime dos not exist in my country...!"
...but my friends are you sleeping tonight like he does...?...are you safe and sound in you home as he is...?...is your family also safe and sound like his...?...no, he doh have to worry...but you do...because if you don't...crapaud smoke your pipe...!
...and then he go on to say that the Minister of National Security will make the statement in Parliament shortly...and the man did not laugh at all...but his wife Hazel was clapping and grinning like dey know dey did it and got away again...right...?
...so put on the Red Shirt and jump and wave...and bacchanal and party and fete till you drop...and Patrick laughing all the way back to his palace...safe and sound ...surrounded by his "moat" and his 75 Personal Bodyguards" and for we, well just wait till the sun sets and the place gets dark, and we barricade we door and put on the iron bolts and lock we selves up in our prisons...we homes that is...and we lie awake unable to close our eyes...waiting to hear any strange sounds and hoping none comes tonight...and praying for the sun to rise early...so we could breathe a sigh of relief again...yes, we survived another night in the "Land of Milk and Honey...Patrick's Land of Milk and Honey...!
...and all the while, we hoping that all we loved ones also survived the night too...!
...well talk about the Devil and all the Lagahoo comes out to play...and Patrick maybe laughing his head off...cause maybe he knows the Head Lagahoo also...just like he knows Mr.Big and the rest of the community Leaders....because they all dead now and turned to Lagahoo too...so dey know dey Leader...???
...soon this land is all about Patrick, spirits and obeah lady...and survival...day and night...just plain survival...!...and nothing else but...!
...goodluck...Trini.t.o.o
Boy, I does have to shake meh head and laugh yes. But dee bad part is dat when ah laugh is not because anyt'ing genuinely funny to laugh at.
Recently two of the media in Donkey Rock report about the murder rate - each report quoting a different murder toll.
I real sorry for people like she. You t'ink she coulda forseen she father getting knife to death. I sorry for he too. He dead. And the moral of the story for dee res' a allyuh who lef' dong dey, is dat none a allyuh cyah say that the risk of being murdered is low on Donkey Rock.
But no - allyuh like dat land too bad. Doh follow my advice to build dat raft. But you will remember that I was dee one to say 'BUILD DAT RAFT' and move out!
Eef was me I dus' it long time. Me eh waitin' fuh no knife-wielding criminal to stick knife in me.
...yuh right, the Express says the murders are now 480, but the Newsday says their count is 478, that's after the five killed all in one day...?
...does it really matter which one is the right number...?...do the people really care what the correct number is, especially the people who are directly affected...?
...want to know who really running the country...just ask Minister Cox...!..as this is her other "revelation"...as quoted in today's Express news...!
..."Between January 2008 and November 2009, a total of 1,143 cellphones were confiscated in 417 searches in the nation’s prisons, Minister in the Ministry of National Security Donna Cox said yesterday."
...this Government is incompetent and is asleep while its citizens are being decimated daily, and really does not care...all they care about is to spend the people's money wildly, throw big parties for the entire world...while the citizens suffer...or get killed...!
...another record breaking year for murders is just around the corner...and nobody really knows what plan and which letter of the alphabet the Government working on right now...must be Triple ZZZZZZ....all these people getting killed daily and the Government Parties...and having a Ball...?...go figure...!
...wake up folks, before its too late......!
...goodluck...Trini.t.o.o
.....Murder toll now 477
["By ALEXANDER BRUZUAL Thursday, December 17 2009
A 27-YEAR-OLD man who was brutally murdered in broad daylight in front of his shocked common-law wife yesterday afternoon, is the country’s 477th murder victim for this year."]
...the above is an extract taken from today's Newsday's article...!
...SEEMS LIKE FIVE DAYS AGO IT 480 MURDERS ACCORDING TO ANOTHER NEWS SOURCE...???
...looks like they need a bit of help from Clint Eastwood..."For A Few Dollars More"...?
...cause it sure seems like they're having trouble with their counting...bodies that is?
...either that, or the killings happening so fast, they just can't keep track of who or how many are getting killed....it's taking days to keep up with the numbers...???
...so like Cap'n says above, does it really matter to these people with faces like the one shown...?...does she really care what the number is...???
...fact of the matter is, those who should really care and is paid handsomely to do so, just don't care a darn...!
...he just like looking at his picture with the U.N Chief, Ban Ki Moon;
[ "PM meets 'one on one' with UN chief...Secretary General Ban-Ki Moon...! Thursday, December 17th 2009]
...while the people keep on getting killed till they lost count and the "man" just like to keep getting his "HUGE EGO" stroked...?
...shame on Ban-Ki Moon too...for even meeting with him, while "THE HUMAN RIGHTS OF TRINI'S ARE BEING ABUSED BY THE SAME MAN HE IS MEETING WITH...SHAME ON HIM TWICE...!!!
...somebody need to tell it to him to his face, instead of meeting him and treating him as a so called "WORLD LEADER"...WHICH HE IS NOT...!
...condolences to the family of those who are being killed at the hands of and the ineptitude of this government...he should take heed of the recent incident to the "leader of Italy"...but then Trini's is all talk and no guts...!!!
...but this year ain't finished yet...still time to get the "math right"...or ask/beg Clint Eastwood for help...with the NUMBERS that is....if it's getting too high for we Trini's to count...!!!...cause here comes the NEW YEAR...!
...goodluck...Trinit.o.o
Well the murder rate at Xmas eve was only 490. Dat lookin' well off the predictions of Freedom Chambers. Could dat mean dat dee Pastor an' all a dem people finally get Gord tuh do supm? Funny t'ing doh, is dat Gord doh get in dee way of all deese bullets dat flying.
...Murder toll reaches 500
Philbert to check the figure
Jensen LaVende
Sunday, December 27th 2009
...KILLERS, you have reached your mark.
..."While the rest of the country celebrated the festive season, two men were murdered yesterday, bringing the number of people murdered in T&T for 2009 to 500, according to a Sunday Express tally."
..."the above taken ...courtesy today's Express ..."!
...Philbert still having trouble with his counting...!
...nah, Captain...dey ain't done yet...still three days more to go...!
...after all, this is the land of "Milk & Honey"...except, blood flowing in the streets like a river...and just about anywhere and everywhere...you stumbling on "dead bodies"...on the road and yards of homes...or they floating in rivers and ponds...in the sea...in the bushes...and cars...parking lots...of police stations...!???
...and all the while, Patrick trying to play world diplomat, trying to sell his "snake oil" stuff on "real world leaders"...while his country going to hell in a hand basket...but who cares...except us...he just don't care...!
...but Judgement day will come for him and soon...he could run but he can't hide...!
...all the best for the season and to the New Year 2010...whatsoever it may bring, but most importantly...good health, happiness, prosperity and peace...TO ALL...!!!
...goodluck...Trini.t.o.o
Well eef memory serves dee same crap happen las' year. Nobody could be certain what the real murder rate was.
Newsday 2009-12-27 = 492.
TT Express 2009-12-27 = 500
It look like Express winnin' boy! Soon yuh go hear from Philbert et al going supm like 'It wasn' too bad a year fuh murders eh' - watch.
If we take the end of year total as approximately 505 - which wouldn't be too far off the mark - our reworking of the trendlines shows some possible divergence. We will soon be putting out our latest 'Homicide Forecast'.
There are two possibilities emerging for next year.
If the latter is true - and we will probably only know late into 2010 - it will be difficult to say what factors were responsible for the reduction.
Site Admin
...it would appear from all the news sources, including Martin Joseph himself...that the murder toll for 2009 ended with a total of 506 for the year 2009...! ...as per Martin Joseph,this is less than the 548 reported murders for 2008...!...its not worth the time to explain his percentages of "reduction" in crime...or his "explanations for the decrease"...all of which makes good for kindergarten story telling tales...more so than for any mature thinking rationale for his statistics and his reasons for the so called "7.6% decrease from last year's increase"...??? ...he then gets into another round of "gibberish" about "apart from the "reduction" of 42 murders from 2008..."there was an increase in the rate of solved murders—from 18.1 per cent in 2008 to 26.3 per cent last year."...he went on to add, of the 548 murders in 2008, only 20 were solved...??? ...maybe I have been watching too many comedy shows that his statements are no longer "funny"...not even "jokey"...in fact they are just plain stupid...and dumb...! ...having also read Jumbie's latest contribution here on this subject...I believe I can now safely say that Martin Joseph and his illustrious Leader, along with their cohorts, really don't have a flippin' clue as to what they are doing, what is really happening and what they are supposed to be doing to address the horrendous crime and criminals who have taken over the "running of the country"...as it also appears that the criminals are even directing "hits" from within the prison walls...! ...yes, we have reached...we reach, man...! ...good luck and a Happy New Year to all of you my friends on this site...all the best ..take care and good health and a prosperous 2010...! ...Trinit.o.o
Hello,
I live in Broward county, Florida along with many other nationals from Trinidad & Tobago and I can boldly state that I am definitely not afraid for my personal safety here.
We are very concerned about the horrible crime situation in our homeland, as all of us have family members living there.
In 2009 over 500 people were murdered in Trinidad & Tobago, with a population of 1.2 million.
However, in Broward county with a population of 1.75 million, in 2009 the number of people slain was 71, which was the lowest since 2004, when 69 were killed.
How come the authorities in Trinidad cannot reign in violent crime?
I am sure that we can learn some lessons from our counterparts in Florida.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/breakingnews/fl-broward-homicides...
The above is a link to the story in the Sun Sentinel, the local paper here.